The long-term median sales price chart below is similar to those for counties around the Bay Area – a significant spike in median house prices since the pandemic struck in early spring.

As mentioned before, recent jumps in median house prices have been driven not only by appreciation in fair market values, but by large increases in expensive home sales. Affluent buyers have made up a significantly larger percentage of Napa County and Bay Area home purchases since the pandemic hit.

Listings Accepting Offers by WEEK

The county market has been deeply affected by multiple disasters this year. In normal years, activity typically begins a big slowdown in late-October/early-November, running through the mid-winter period, then waking up in early spring. We suspect Q4 will continue to slow down, but remain more active than in past years.

Luxury Home Listings, $2m+, Accepting Offers by MONTH

Home sales breakdown by price segment and bedroom count: Napa County has a substantial market for luxury homes and estates, but the majority of homes sell for under $1,000,000.

Along with Monterey County (+56%) and Santa Cruz County (+51%), Napa (+49%) has seen the largest year-over-year increase in buyer demand in the Bay Area: Buyers looking for lower population density, better quality of life, and/or more affordable home prices. As measured by the percentage of listings accepting offers, San Francisco was the only county to see a year-over-year decline, fueled mostly by a dramatic softening in its large condo market.

Market Dynamics by City or Region

Following is a series of analyses that look at city median house sales prices, sales volumes, luxury home sales, listings for sale, and a few standard measurements of supply and demand. Note that markets with substantial luxury home and estate segments often see softer dynamics – the pool of buyers is much smaller, and overpricing more common for these very special properties – but this is not always the case.

A selection of Sonoma County cities has been added to these charts to provide greater context to the overall Wine Country market. (By sales volume, Santa Rosa is by far the largest market in the 2 counties.)

Regarding the next chart: Percentages of 50% or more would typically be considered to reflect a high-demand market. Over 60% signifies very high demand, or as it climbs, extremely high demand. As mentioned before, markets with very substantial luxury home segments as a percentage of listings – such as St. Helena – often see softer supply and demand indicators.